Week 7 Thursday Night Special

As with our last Thursday Night Special, we will provide a full review of the previous week later this week. Tonight's pick will be included as one of our five Week 7 picks.


New York +10 (120) @ New England

For the third time in the last four weeks, we will be picking against New England for all the usual reasons. New England's scoring offense has been significantly inflated by turnovers. Nearly all of New England's big wins have coincided with high turnover differentials. New England is a particularly dangerous team to turn the ball over against because they have the discipline to make you pay for your mistakes almost every time. While New York has been quite inept when it comes to holding on to the ball this season, turnovers tend to even out over time, and we think there is no reason to believe that New York will turn it over significantly tonight. From a strictly match-up perspective, we also like New York's opportunities. New England's struggles on the offensive line dove-tail nicely into New York's greatest strength. To compete in this game, New York will need to limit the number of times they ask Geno Smith to throw, which will require an effective running game. Coincidentally, New England just lost their best run defender, Mayo, for the season and will likely be with out several other key linebackers. We like New England to edge out the "W" in a sloppy defensive struggle.