Week 6 Review (Week, 2-3, Season, 14-16 All Time 117-95-2)
Like Week 5, Week 6 had a game that absolutely stunned us--Dallas winning on the road against Seattle. We were high on Dallas, but thought the match up was completely one sided in favor of Seattle. We still believe Dallas, and other teams currently outperforming their talent, will eventually regress to the mean, but it will be difficult to call the tops of their runs. Moving forward, we will pick games where teams are being over/undervalued instead of games where teams are over/underperforming expectations.
Week 7 Picks
Detroit -2.5 (115) vs New Orleans
Both of these teams have been surprises this year. While New Orleans has completely lost its defense, Detroit has found its own. We are fervent believers in what Detroit is doing on the defensive side of the ball. Though Detroit will continue to struggle to score with out Calvin Johnson, they should be able to put some points on the board against New Orleans. By the numbers, Detroit is a measurably better team than New Orleans, and a simple field goal win at home should be more than manageable.
Cleveland -5.5 @ Jacksonville
Just as we believe in Detroit's defense, we believe in Cleveland's offense. Outside of Dallas', this offensive line is as good as any. Though the loss of Mack is a concern, we do not see any reason to believe that Cleveland won't be able to move the ball easily on Jacksonville. Surprisingly, it has been Cleveland's defense that has held the team back. We believe this will be a great opportunity for the defensive unit of Cleveland to reassert itself and help the team in a blow out road victory.
San Diego -3 vs Kansas City
Despite winning on the road, San Diego was a let down in Oakland last week. Coming off of stretch of dominating wins, it seemed like a classic spot for a trap game. Though Kansas City has been better in recent weeks, we expect San Diego to return to form in this game and win comfortably at home.
Arizona -3.5 (100) @ Oakland
As mentioned above, Oakland was the beneficiary of a classic trap game. Despite the nice story line that the symbolic burial of a football provides, we believe that Oakland is still one of the worst teams in the NFL and are being overvalued. Conversely we believe Arizona has flown largely under the radar and is poised to contend for the NFC West title deep into the season. We like Arizona to win big.