2017 Week 5 NFL ATS Picks
49ers +2, Bengals -3, Jags +8.5, Packers +2, Chiefs PK
Week 4 Results
Week 3-2-0, Season 11-7-2, All Time 235-216-12
Week 5 Picks
49ers +2 @ Colts
Some weeks, obvious line mispricings pop off the page. Other weeks, you find yourself taking the 0-4 49ers only getting 2 for an early start road game. The Colts and 49ers have played nearly identical schedules, and even though the Colts have a win, I've been much more impressed by the 49ers. The same teams that dominated the Colts found themselves in bizarre dogfights with the 49ers. The three NFC West teams that beat the Colts by a combined 68 points, beat the 49ers by a combined 8. I don't like either team, but the 49ers have a good front seven and a solid running game. That should give them at least a decent shot at the road win.
Bengals -3 (115) vs Bills
Following wins against the Broncos and Falcons, the Bills are a bit overvalued in my estimation. Given the statistical superiority of passing, it's difficult to like a team that runs the ball as much as the Bills do. If the Bills ran it as well as the Titans or Cowboys, it would be one thing, but the team averages only 3.4 YPC. To their credit, Tyrod Taylor has managed difficult yardage situations extremely well, but I don't think that can last forever. I like the Bengals to win at home.
Jags +8.5 @ Steelers
Picking against the Steelers is a bit like playing Russian Roulette. Every week I can be reasonably confident that they will underwhelm offensively, and yet, I also have complete confidence that at some point this season, they will explode for 40 and never look back. The Steelers will win this game, but the Jags defense has been too good this year for me to expect the Steelers to breakout.
Packers +2 @ Cowboys
In picking both the Packers and Rams last week, I fully expected to be on the Cowboys today following a bit of overreaction. However, this spot is just too difficult. The Cowboys lost their (second) best defender, their secondary is exceedingly injured, and they have to play Aaron Rodgers just as his offensive line starts to get healthy. The Cowboys should be good offensively, but I don't expect them to be able to slow Rodgers down on the other side of the ball. I imagine they'll be playing from behind, which restricts their ability to lean on the running game. I like the Packers to win outright.
Chiefs PK @ Houston
There should be no surprise in this pick. Watson might become a great player, but he's still a rookie. Beating up on bad secondaries doesn't change that basic fact. I don't particularly like this spot for the Chiefs, but I believe Houston is the most overvalued team in the league right now.