2017 Week 4 NFL ATS Picks
Rams +6, Titans -1.5, Raiders +3, Eagles +2.5
Week 3 Results
Week 4-1-0, Season 8-5-2, All Time 232-214-12
Week 3 Picks
Rams +6 @ Cowboys
Despite facing an easy schedule, the Rams have looked very impressive this year. Improved offensive line play has allowed the Rams to run a real offense that finally gives the defense relief. Though the Cowboys have played well, they haven't quite lived up to expectations. The defense was expected to struggle, but no one could have predicted the team's averageness running the ball. I do expect the Cowboys to win this game, but a Rams upset is more likely than this price would suggest.
Titans -1.5 @ Texans
One of the most underrated traits in the NFL is consistency. Any good player can be elite for a game, but only great players can sustain performance week after week. As good as Watson looked against the Patriots, I don't expect him to keep up the pace--he's a rookie and the Patriots defense is below average. The Texans offense will regress and the Titans will continue to fire on all cylinders.
Raiders +3 (105) @ Broncos
Having picked against the Broncos in every game this year, I was quite surprised by how Siemian played against Buffalo. He made several elite throws down the field and gave credibility to the idea that this team could be a contender. That said, I think the surprise story for the Broncos in Week 3 was how poorly they defended the pass against Tyrod Taylor. If the Broncos' can't defend the pas, the Raiders will have a bounce back day in Week 4. I like the Raiders to win a very competitive game.
Eagles +2.5 @ Chargers
The Eagles are quietly having a great 2017 season. I've been particularly impressed with the offensive and Wentz progression in year two. The Eagles strike me as an ascendant team that will continuously improve as the season moves on, while the Chargers seem to be the exact opposite. The front seven is elite, but everywhere else they look old and below average. Despite a great spot for the Chargers, I like the Eagles to get the win.