2015 Week 11 Thursday Night ATS Pick

** As always, Thursday Night picks will be included as one of my five weekly picks. A full review of the previous week will be included when I pick the remaining four games this week**

Jacksonville -2.5 (120) vs Tennessee

Most people look at this game and figure we are in for another disappointing Thursday night game, but I couldn’t be more excited to watch these two young teams battle it out. Jacksonville hasn’t won many games, but they have been highly competitive in most. This ‘success’—if you want to call it that—is the result of two primary trends. First, the Jaguars have been dominant in run defense, holding openents to a league best 3.3 YPC. Second, the Jaguars passing offense has been explosive, ranking 7th in yards per completion (despite a bottom quartile YPA statistic). Against quality teams, stout run defense makes Jacksonville difficult to close out, and an explosive passing offense allows Jacksonville to climb back into games quickly. Against bad teams, these two factors are a recipe to win.

Tennessee is simply not a good team. While they are solid in run defense, things fall apart in the secondary. Additionally, the Titans’ run blocking has regressed significantly, which is putting undue stress on Mariota, a rookie trying to navigate the difficult transition to professional football. They have shown flashes of promise, but overall are too young and too raw to be consistently competitive. Ultimately, I think Tennessee is where Jacksonville was last year. At this point, Jacksonville is a more refined team, and I like them to win at home.