2015 Week 10 NFL ATS Picks

Week 9 Review (Week 1-4, Season 22-22-1, All Time 168-147-3)

Going 1-4 is not fun. Neither is falling to 50% on the year, but that's what happened to my picks in Week 9. Instead of dwelling on last week's numbers, let's focus on this week's match-ups. 

Week 10 Picks

Tennessee +6 (120) vs Carolina

So far this year, Carolina has really outplayed their advanced stats...which is the same as saying I've gotten a lot of picks wrong going against them. That said, given the disparity between record and talent/ability, I still believe Carolina is being overvalued. Additionally, I think this is a great spot for Tennessee, whose elite run defense should matchup nicely against Carolina's over-reliance on Cam and the running game. Given this favorable matchup, I actually like Tennessee to win straight up as a home underdog.

Washington PK vs New Orleans

Last week Washington failed to cover a 14 point spread, which is unequivocally not good. However, despite losing to New England by 17 points, my opinion on Washington has not changed much. They are good when they don't turn it over and when they can establish a run game. Against, New Orleans, I expect Washington to give up some points, but against the New Orleans defense, I expect the Saints to give up a lot more. 

Cleveland +4.5 @ Pittsburg

There was a time, not to long ago, when Cleveland was a sharp play. While I do maintain my opinion that their offensive line needs work, overall, I think Cleveland can play a competent brand of football. On the other side of the ball, Pittsburgh is dealing, yet again, with a terrible run of injury luck. Roethlisberger can make up for a few injuries or for a few missing parts, but I am highly suspicious that Landry Jones will be able to do the same. I think Jones struggles and the Browns win outright.

Oakland -3 vs Minnesota

Last week I picked Minnesota not because I thought they were good, but rather because I thought they were being undervalued relative to the Rams. This week I feel the opposite. Minnesota still struggles to move the ball while Oakland does not at all. I have some concerns about Oakland's defense, but overall, I think this is a great spot for Oakland to play up and Minnesota to fall into a post Rams game trap.

Arizona +3.5 (120) @ Seattle

At one point, I was convinced Seattle's struggles were strength of schedule related. However, after only narrowly beating some pretty bad teams, I am not so sure. Conversely, the Cardinals have continued to play like a well balanced, well run team. Not only do I think Arizona is better, but I also think Seattle's home field advantage has really taken a step back this year, making this pick all the more attractive. I like Arizona to win outright.