2015 Week 12 NFL ATS Picks
Week 11 Review (Week 4-1, Season 28-26-1, All Time 174-151-3)
Generally speaking, Week 11 unfolded as expected--or as close to expected as an NFL week gets. My picks went 4-1 with only one surprise in Philadelphia. Even with all of Winston's improvement, I really expected him to struggle against an Eagles' defense that has played well all year. Last weeks' game showed just how risky a fast paced offense can be when drives are not being sustained. If Philadelphia doesn't play better on offense, this will unfortunately be Chip Kelly's last year with the Eagles.
Week 12 Picks
Tampa Bay +3.5 (115) @ Indianapolis
Last week I picked the Colts and picked against the Bucs. What's changed? Well for one, I significantly undervalued the offensive ability of Tampa Bay and I do not believe they will have many issues moving the ball against the Colts. As for the Colts, last week's selection was more against the Falcons than for the Colts. In many ways, the Colts were fortunate to win that game, and I believe they will struggle offensively against the Bucs. I like Tampa Bay to win outright.
Pittsburgh +3.5 @ Seattle
Despite the record and despite the power rankings, I still really like the Seahawks. They still have a world class pass rush and a QB who I believe belongs in whatever tier exists just below Brady and Rodgers However, this is a very unfortunate matchup. Defensively, Seattle gets pressure upfront, but is susceptible to big plays in the secondary. If there was a QB built for handling pressure, its Roethlisberger, and if there were a receiving core built for big plays, its the Steelers'. I believe the Steelers will put up a lot of points and win on the road.
Minnesota +2 @ Atlanta
Like last week, I am picking against Atlanta. Atlanta's passing game is completely broken, and their lack of reliable defense compounds matters significantly. I am not wild about Bridgewater or the Vikings' offense as a whole, but they do have a fantastic defense that has won several games this year. Minnessota is simply a much better team, and I like them to win on the road.
Denver +3 (115) vs New England
Tom Brady is the best QB of this generation, but he is not a miracle worker. His offensive line is shot and his receiving weapons are all sidelined with injuries. It is not surprising that Buffalo's defense, which has disappointed all year, looked championship caliber against this Patriots offensive unit. This week, the Patriots will face a real championship caliber defense, and they will have to do it on the road. This game should be a struggle for the Patriots offensively, and I like Denver to win at home.
Cleveland -2.5 (115) vs Baltimore
There was a stretch where Baltimore was being undervalued due to very unlucky fumble and penalty statistics. Well, the bad luck continued last Sunday, as the Ravens lost both their starting RB and franchise QB. Given the injuries this team had sustained, I believed that Joe Flacco was the only thing holding it all together. With Flacco out, I think the Ravens will really tailspin. Where as before they were competitive in losses, now they will be blown out. For that reason, and that reason alone, I am picking the favored Browns.