2015 Week 11 NFL ATS Picks
Week 10 Review (Week 2-3, Season 24-25-1, All Time 170-150-3)
After a third straight losing week, my picking percentage is below .500 for the first time this season. For the most part, Week 10 was pretty even, as 3 of 5 games were within one score in the fourth quarter. One exception was the Steelers-Browns game, where a pick predicated on the assumption that Landry Jones could not replicate Ben Roethlisberger’s elite level of play was undone when Ben Roethlisberger ended up playing in place of an injured Landry. As evidenced by the Steelers-Browns game, quarterback play is everything in the NFL. Though there are few marquee matchup in Week 11, I am incredibly excited to see how Osweiler, Hassleback, Sanchez, Yates, and Keenum will perform as newly minted starters.
Week 11 Picks
Denver +1.5 @ Chicago
If these two teams played even just three weeks ago, I have to believe that the line would be closer to Denver -7. While Chicago has played quite well since then, this line is what it is because Brock Osweiler is starting in the place of Peyton Manning. Peyton Manning has been abysmally inefficient this season and was on pace for one of the worst statistically seasons in the history of quarterbacking. Like everyone else, I have little idea as to how Osweiler will perform, but I am incredibly confident he will play at a higher level than Manning was. It would extremely improbable for him not to. In my opinion, the benching of Manning is a positive for Denver and I believe this game is profoundly mispriced.
Indianapolis +6 @ Atlanta
It’s been a disappointing few weeks for both of these teams. After starting 6-0, Atlanta has lost 3 of its last 4 to weak opponents like the Saints and 49ers. Their inability to throw the football is both surprising and unfortunate. Indianapolis has fared a bit better, losing close games to good opponents like the Panthers and Patriots. Unfortunately, Andrew Luck has been sidelined due to injury and the playoff hopes of this franchise rest in the 40 year old hands of a career back-up. However, given the recent play of a hurt Andrew Luck, I am just not sure how much of a downgrade this will be. I think Indianapolis is just as talented as Atlanta, and I like their odds to win outright as a large road dog.
Philadelphia -5.5 110 vs Tampa Bay
Despite both having the same record, these two teams couldn’t be further apart in terms of direction. Winston’s recent play coupled with a strong run defense is giving fans reason to believe in Tampa Bay. In Philadelphia, bad losses are beginning to strain the relationship between the once golden Chip Kelly and the fans of Philadelphia. Even though the Eagles are on a down trend and Tampa Bay is looking good, I think the Eagles have a great chance to win by multiple scores. Tampa Bay has been successful when playing bad defenses, but has struggled mightily against even mediocre defenses. Philadelphia’s Defense is far from mediocre and I believe the Eagles will have a lot of success in the turnover and field position departments because of it. I like Philadelphia to win big.
Cincinnati +4.5 @ Arizona
The Bengals played what is likely to be their worst game of the season last Monday on national television. There’s really no getting around that fact. If there is a silver lining the Bengals 16-10 loss, it’s that good teams tend to bounce back. I think losing to the Texans was a complete anomaly for what is a very loaded Bengals roster. In my eyes, Cincinnati and Arizona are dead even, and I like Cincinnati getting points.