Posts tagged Elo
An Initial Exploration of Home Field Advantage in the NFL
  • HFA trends are volatile at the individual season level, but long term trends show a steady decline. From 2000 to 2019, trailing 10 season HFA declined from 2.9 points to 2.2 points

  • Individual teams may experience periods of elevated HFA, but elevated HFA is not predictive of future elevated HFA across any window of games

  • Variation in HFA for individual games does not appear to be significantly influenced by the mileage traveled by the away team. Away travel correlates with divisional games, which exhibit a much stronger relationship with HFA

  • Modeled HFA is 2.95 non-divisional games and 1.59 for divisional games

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