2013 Week 9 Review & Week 10 Picks
Week 9 Review (Week 3-2-0, Season 22-21-2)
With Week 9 in the rear view mirror, we are now roughly halfway through the 2013 NFL season. Perhaps the biggest surprise thus far has been the long-term reality of what was initially thought to be short-term flukiness for teams like the Jets, Chiefs, Giants, Falcons, and Bucs. The Jets and Chiefs have exceeded all expectations with dominating defense and strong rushing offense. They are true throwbacks and real threats to make the playoffs. The Giants, Falcons, and Bucs on the other hand have served as reminders as to how difficult it is to win consistently in the NFL. Regardless of talent, any team can struggle given the right mixture of injuries, poor coaching, and sloppy play. Though we recognize the realities of these teams, many analysts and fans still cling to conceptions formulated before the season started. These misconceptions drive value ATS on a weekly basis, and we will continue to look for ways to exploit these misconceptions over the second half of the season.
Week 10 Picks
Cincinnati -1 @ Baltimore
Both of these teams suffered critical defeats in Week 9. Cincinnati lost an overtime heartbreaker to Miami and, quite frankly, was dominated throughout the game. Even worse, Cincinnati lost its best player, Geno Atkins, to a season ending knee injury. Baltimore looked equally horrible in their loss in Cleveland. Despite another solid defensive performance, Baltimore continued to struggle running the ball and couldn't do anything offensively. Even with the loss of Atkins, we expect a still capable Cincinnati defense to cause issues for Baltimore's offense all game long.
Tennessee -12.5 (-110) @ Jacksonville
A 12.5 point favorite isn't necessarily our most frequent play, however this pick speaks to the complete lack of value given by Jacksonville. While we still see parity throughout the NFL, Jacksonville has proven to be one of the worst teams in the history of the league. Conversely, Jake Locker and Tennessee have been surprisingly good. We expect Tennessee's defense to force turnovers in a big win.
Oakland +9 (-130) @ New York
Despite a two game winning streak, we still believe that New York is one of the worst teams in the NFL, especially when considering that their only two wins have come over Josh Freeman and Matt Barkley. The Raiders are also coming off of a blow out loss which has inflated this line well above where it should be. We like Oakland to possibly win on the road.
St. Louis +9.5 @ Indy
Indepently these two teams are in two wildly different classes, but when viewed in tandem, St. Louis is actually a poor matchup for Indy. While Indy's defense is much improved from last year, a significant proportion of said improvement has been the result of a strong preference to protect against the pass instead of the run. Schematically, it makes sense to concede rushing yards to keep the game close enough for Andrew Luck to win it in the 4th quarter, but given St. Louis' proven ability to run the football in recent weeks, we expect St. Louis to stay competitive to the final whistle.
Carolina +6.5 @ San Francisco
Both Carolina and San Francisco have flown under the radar in the second quarter of the season. After shaky starts, both teams have shown a propensity for dominating games with complimentary game plans predicated on wearing down opponents with hard nosed offense and defense. Given the playing style and ability of both these teams, we believe that Carolina will have a real chance to win on the road and kickstart a run at the playoffs.