2016 Week 5 NFL ATS Picks
Week 4 Results
Week 2-3, Season 5-14-1, All Time 198-178-4
Week 4 was my fourth losing week in a row, which is never a good thing. However, It was probably my best week of the year so far. The losses were close and the wins were in blowouts. The seasons seems to have normalized, and with four weeks in the books, now is the time to start really taking advantage of incorrect lines.
Week 5 Picks
Tennessee +3.5 (115) @ Miami
Miami is actually in a decent spot here, coming off both a bad loss and a long week of perpetration. At the same time, I believe Tennessee continues to be one of the more underrated teams in the league. Even with the worst fumble recovery differential in the league, Tennessee has played 3 division leaders well into the fourth quarter and beat there only other opponent outright. I like Tennessee to win this game as a road underdog.
Cincinnati -2 @ Dallas
This shouldn't be a good spot for Cincinnati who is coming off of a dominant prime time win, but I think the overall market is too high on Dallas right now. Prescott has played well and the team is 3-1, but it's been a lot of grinding against bad football teams. If Dallas were truly good, they wouldn't have needed help to beat San Francisco, and they certainly wouldn't have lost to Washington outright. Dallas still has huge gaps defensively and I think Prescott will come back to earth as he puts more of his play and tendencies on tape. Cincinnati is clearly a better team, and I don't mind swallowing a couple of points.
Denver -4.5 vs Atlanta
Atlanta's offense is rolling, but I question who it's rolling against. New Orleans, Oakland, and Carolina may have the three worst secondaries in the NFL. It was only a month ago that Matt Ryan was considered a declining has been who couldn't even manufacture 20 points against Tampa Bay. This is a perfect spot for Atlanta to have a let down game and really crumble against a truly elite team.
New York +7 @ Green Bay
After a loss on Monday night, I think New York is now being properly valued by oddsmakers. They have a great, but not elite offense and an improving, but not yet dominant defense. I still have concerns about their line play, but generally like what they are doing. Green Bay is coming off of a bye, but I'm not sure how much it could have really helped them. They still struggle with many of the same issues that plagued them in 2015 even after having an entire off-season to work through them. Green Bay is better than New York, but not by a touchdown.