2016 Week 8 NFL ATS Picks
Week 7 Results
Week 2-2-1, Season 10-21-4, All Time 203-185-7
No review this week due to time constraints
Week 8 Picks
Detroit +2.5 @ Houston
Despite gross incompetence on offense, Houston continues to garner a fair amount of respect in the market. Perhaps t's because of early season expectations, a (wrong) perception of residual defensive strength, or the fact that the rest of their division is below average. I struggle to rationalize it. Regardless, I don’t think Houston is a sure favorite over any team, and I like the points here for Detroit.
Atlanta -3 (100) vs Green Bay
My opinion hasn’t changed at all on either of these teams and I think both are a bit overrated—though Green Bay considerably more so. Green Bay's struggles have been masked by the fact that they’ve played for an entire month straight in at home. If Green Bay has struggled offensively at home, where they have been historically great, why shouldn’t we expect them to struggle more on the road? After two straight losses, I think Atlanta takes advantage of an injured and over-rated Green Bay squad.
San Diego +4.5 @ Denver
I continue to like both of these teams, but I currently see more flaws in Denver than San Diego. Denver doesn’t have the best offensive line, has a rookie QB, and is injured at RB. Against bad to average defenses they look pretty good because of Kubiak’s system, but against good defenses they struggle. I think San Diego has that, and I believe they have reasonable chances to pull off the season sweep.
Minnesota -5.5 @ Chicago
This certainly isn’t a value play and it goes against many of the advanced metrics out there, but I have to believe that Minnesota will be out for blood in this game. Minnesota beat themselves last week, which means they will be focused, prepared, and overly motivated. Even if things get out of hand, I don’t see this team letting off the gas, making the large spread less intimidating.