2014 Week 3 Review & Week 4 Picks
Week 3 Review (Week, 3-2, Season, 8-7, All Time 113-86-2)
Week 3 was an incredibly tight week, and we feel somewhat fortunate to have escaped with a winning record. We did correctly predict how New England, Seattle, and Dallas would match up against their opponents, but in the cases of Seattle and Dallas, poor 4th and 1st quarters respectively nearly sunk otherwise extremely well played games. Conversely, we could not have been more wrong about Tampa Bay and Green Bay, neither of whom were able to show up offensively. Simply put, Week 3 proved that we are gaining a better grip on what makes each 32 teams in the league tick, but that we will need a few more weeks before we can really start rolling.
Week 4 Picks
Tennessee +7.5 @ Indianapolis
Charlie Whitehurst or Jake Locker--that is not what this game is about. Through his first 2 seasons, Andrew Luck has struggled mightily against this Tennessee defense. While he has eked out close victories in all four of his starts, it has not been pretty. If Luck struggles, this game will be close regardless of who is playing QB for Tennessee. We think Luck still has some room to grow from a consistency perspective, and predict he will not have his best game of the year against Tennessee. If he does, we might begin to consider him as an early MVP favorite.
New York +2 vs Detroit
Though New York did lose on Monday night and is now playing on a short week, they looked good in defeat. Detroit also looked good in their dominant win over Green Bay. As we stated last week, we believe New York and Detroit are extremely similar teams, especially on defense. In a match up between near equals, we see value on New York who is getting points at home. We like New York to win outright.
Chicago +2 vs Green Bay
Typically we really like to go against teams coming off of prime time wins, but after Green Bay's performance last week, we think the value is on Chicago. Though many have been quick to point out that Green Bay's offensive woes are due to a poor running game that has had to play the 3 best run defenses in the league, we would argue that, historically, Aaron Rodgers has been more than capable of overcoming non-existent running games and leading his team to victory. This team doesn't have the receiving threats that it once did and it is starting to show. Even when Green Bay had historically great offenses, they still played down to Chicago. This time around, Chicago is the better team, and we like them to win outright on the road
Dallas +3 vs New Orleans
Though we were quite high on New Orleans to start the year, it is time to pump the proverbial breaks. Some regression on defense was to be expected, but not this severe. Conversely, we expected Dallas to improve on defense, but not by this much. Dallas' defense has been legitimately good for the first three weeks of the season. However, this game will be dictated by offense, big plays, and who can play at full speed with out turning it over. We like Dallas as a live home underdog.
Kansas City +3.5 vs New England
For the second week in a row, we will be picking against New England. Much like last week, we believe New England, in its current state is being overvalued. While the defense continued to impress in Week 3, the offense was anemic, simplistic, and overly conservative. New England's struggles are rooted in poor offensive line play and a lack of any deep receiving threat. Though we believe New England will figure out these issues by the end of the season, we do not think they will be able to get things right in time for Monday night. We like Kansas City to cover at home.