2014 Week 16 Review & Week 17 NFL ATS Picks

Week 16 Review (Week 3-2, Season 37-43, All Time 140-122-2)

With 16 weeks down, it is now time for our final NFL ATS Picks of the 2014-2015 season. As compared to our 2012 and 2013 seasons where we picked 58.24% and 56.63% respectively against the spread, the 2014 season has been a bit of a let down. Not only did we fail to reach the 52.38% ATS break-even hurdle, but also we failed to break the .500 mark--Marshawn Lynch made sure of that when he ripped off this run to ensure a loss on our Arizona pick and a 3-2 record for the week:

By going 3-2 ATS last week, we earned our 4th straight winning week, but remained at 6 games below .500 with only 5 regular season picks remaining. While we will conclusively finish the regular season with our first losing ATS record, we are still looking forward to Week 17 and rebounding in the playoffs!


Week 17 Picks

New Orleans Saints -4 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Very few people have been interested in this match up between disappointing NFC South opponents, but we think there is still a good opportunity for the Saints in this game. The Buccaneers as an organization have every incentive to lose this game and ensure the highest possible draft pick to select their choice of franchise QB in next year's draft. While we expect the players to give 100% as they always do, we wouldn't be surprised if non-starters got a little extra playing time. Brees and the Saints are professionals, and we expect them to take advantage of the Buccaneers' misguided incentives.


New England Patriots -5 vs Buffalo Bills

It is difficult to say how long the Patriots will plan to play their starters in this game, but Bellichick has never been one to rest starters in Week 17 at the risk of acquiring rust. The Patriots were far from perfect in their win last week against the Jets, and we expect them to come out in full strength to try and work out some of those issues. The Bills will fight hard, but we will side with the Patriots at home.


Indianapolis Colts -7 @ Tennessee Titans

We picked against Tennessee last week and probably should not have won, but we still believe that they are the worst team in the NFL. While technically the Colts cannot improve their playoff standing, they still have plenty to play for following their absolute dismantling by the Cowboys last week. We think Andrew Luck and the Colts will be seeking revenge, and unfortunately for Tennessee, they happen to be the closest thing to hit.


Arizona Cardinals +6.5 @ San Francisco 49ers

It was not easy watching the Cardinals attempt to play football last week against Seattle and we have to admit that we seriously underestimated the importance of Drew Stanton to the Arizona Offense. We don't necessarily expect the offense to bounce back against a defense of San Francisco's caliber, but we do expect Arizona's defense to put together a great game after being completely embarrassed by both Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch. We think the 49ers might still win, but it will be closer than a touchdown.


Detroit Lions +7 (100) @ Green Bay Packers

After starting slowly, Aaron Rodgers has put together yet another fantastic season. However, hidden in the great season numbers have been some pretty mediocre performances against Seattle, Detroit, and Buffalo. The common thread amongst all these teams is their physicality, which seems to be the answer to slowing down the Packer's offense. With Rodgers still battling minor injuries we like Detroit to get a season defining win on the road.