2014 Week 9 Review & Week 10 Picks
Week 9 Review (Week 2-3, Season 19-26, All Time 122-105-2)
Our 2-3 woes continued as we registered the 5th such week this season. On the downside, we have registered a lot of negative weeks, but on the plus side, we have been just a few plays and turnovers from being positive. We won't change anything about our strategy and will continue to plug away.
Week 10 Picks
Jacksonville +7 (105) vs Dallas
Last week we liked Arizona against Dallas primarily because of the injuries Dallas had suffered. In that game, the injuries continued to come. Most notable was the injury to Rolondo McClain who had become an essential piece in an already hobbled LB corps. Though Romo and McClain are both expected to play, they will need to be 100% for Dallas to have a chance to blowout Jacksonville given the way Jacksonville has been rushing the passer and the ball in recent weeks. We like Jacksonville as a live underdog.
Atlanta -3 @ Tampa Bay
Both of these teams have been incredibly bad this season and it's especially difficult to pick a bad team as a road favorite, but this is a fantastic match up for Atlanta. Atlanta and Tampa Bay have 2 of the 3 worst pass defenses in the NFL. Atlanta is perfectly built to take advantage of a poor pass defense while Tampa Bay will be asking McCown to revive one of the league's worst pass offenses. Additionally, we think Atlanta has had a much tougher schedule and is being undervalued because people haven't adjusted for it. We do think Tampa Bay will score more than they have in recent weeks, but we don't think they will be able to keep pace with Atlanta.
Detroit -2.5 vs Miami
It wasn't too long ago that rumors were circling that Tannehill might get benched as Miami's starter. Following four straight great performances, he is now being lauded as the difference maker in Miami's recent stretch of brilliance. However, he has performed well against some very bad defenses. Detroit is still a great defense even without Nick Fairly and we think they will be able to bottle up Miami's rushing game enough to make Tannehill win it with his arm. We like Detroit coming off the bye to find some rhythm on offense and win at home.
Oakland +11 vs Denver
Even after their loss in New England, we are still full supporters of this Denver team. However, that being said, we have also been impressed with how Oakland has been moving the ball. If they can tighten up the turnovers and penalties, they could be an interesting offensive team. This is also a potential trap game for Denver as it is their third straight road game and is coming off the tails of their biggest regular season game of the year. We like Oakland to lose close.
St. Louis +7 @ Arizona
There is definitely something to be said about Arizona's ability to win games despite maybe not being statistically dominant. They have a certain intangible that has allowed them to overcome some serious injuries on defense and they remind us a lot of the deep and versatile Seattle defenses of the last two seasons. Arizona's mismatch between record and statistics may have to do with their tendency to play down to their opponent. Many of their wins have been closer than one might expect, which makes getting 7 points here very attractive. Additionally, we think Arizona has been lucky to get such consistent play out of Palmer and to recover so many fumbles. We think St. Louis has the defense to unsettle Palmer and potentially win the turnover battle. We think St. Louis can win this game if they force turnovers, but like them to cover regardless.