2013 Week 3 Review & Week 4 Picks
Week 3 Review (Week 2-3-0, Season 5-8-2)
Week 3 was another week for the favorites and our underdog bias hurt us again. Though Kansas City won outright at Philadelphia, Oakland, Tampa Bay, and St. Louis failed to cover (and it wasn't close for the latter two). Overall, we like Kansas City a lot after an impressive road win on a short week, but have cooled off on St. Louis and Miami given poor play for St. Louis and an injury to Cameron Wake for Miami. We have also done a 180 on New England after their young receivers showed a surprising ability to improve rapidly week-over-week.
Week 4 Picks
Tampa Bay -2.5 vs Arizona
Yes, Tampa Bay again. Though still favorites in the game, Tampa Bay has fallen to the bottom of everyone's power rankings. However, we feel that the negative sentiment has gone too far. Keep in mind that Tampa Bay had a now 2-1 New York team beaten at home and was a few plays from beating New Orleans. The benching of Josh Freeman decreased sentiment further, pushing this line below a key number, but we would argue that benching a QB who can't even complete 50% of his throws is an upgrade.
Kansas City -4 vs New York
As we mentioned earlier, we like Kansas City a lot. This team reminds us of the 2011 49ers, who saw a huge jump in performance after a great coach took over an uber talented but poorly coached team. It may just be a coincidence that this team is also built around a physical pass rush, strong running game, and conservative QB named Alex Smith. Looking at this specific game, we think Kansas City has a huge advantage after playing a Thursday nighter and getting extra days to prepare for a New York team that is in shambles.
Chicago +3 (-130) @ Detroit
This year's Detroit pass rush versus last year's Chicago O-line would have been an issue, but improvements in that area and a new offensive scheme have kept Jay Cutler upright, eliminating one of the few advantages Detroit should have had in this game. In general, we like teams getting points who also have a great chance of winning outright. Chicago fits that bill here.
New England +1.5 @ Atlanta
New England's offense looked a lot better in Week 3 after a dismal Thursday night showing the week before. Their young receivers showed real improvement and there is still an outside chance that Gronkowski plays. Overall we think Atlanta's injured offense will have difficulty moving the ball against a very good New England defense. We expect New England to win outright.
New Orleans -6.5 vs Miami
We have been on the Miami wagon for a few weeks, but after two very close games, we think it is time to pump the breaks. Overall we still like Miami a lot, but New Orleans' defense, their perceived weakness, has been outstanding, making them unexpected contenders. We like New Orleans to win by a touchdown, but nothing more.