2013 Week 2 Review & Week 3 Picks
Week 2 Review (Week 3-1-1, Season 3-5-2)
Week 2 saw a slight normalization from the chaos that was Week 1. Though there were far fewer unexpected outcomes, games still tended to be tightly contested as the oft spoken "NFL Parity" was on full display. Overall our underdogs ruled the day as we went 3-1-1, with each game panning out largely as expected. Moving forward, we see continued value in teams like Miami, Tampa Bay, and St. Louis and will continue to fade teams we see as over-valued like the Falcons and Saints.
Week 3 Picks
Kansas City +3 @ Philadelphia
While it is difficult to pick against a home team on a Thursday, the better team with the better coach is getting points. Kansas City's pass rushers have a great match up against a week Philadelphia O-line, and should be able to get constant pressure on the QB. Furthermore, the conservative Kansas City offense should keep its defense well rested on the sideline, combating many pitfalls of facing a tempo offense. We wouldn't be surprised if last year's "Fire Andy" cheers turn into "Hire Andy" ones this Thursday.
St. Louis +4 @ Dallas
Dallas did not look great last weak at Arrowhead and generally experience little home-field advantage at AT&T Stadium. St. Louis on the other hand proved last weak that they could overcome bad mistakes on the road and hang with a relatively good Atlanta team. While we don't necessarily see any hugely favorable match ups here, 4 points is too many to give a young and fearless St. Louis team.
Miami -2.5 vs Atlanta
Miami's defense continued its dominant play, beating Indy on the road in strong fashion. On the flip side, an already injured Atlanta squad lost 2 more key defensive players in the team's Week 2 victory over St. Louis. In addition, public perception is still lagging on both these teams which is allowing for a short spread on the home team to cover.
Tampa Bay +7 @ New England
We would have expected this line to be a bit wider given New England's public nature and the recent controversy surrounding Tampa Bay, but 7 points is about right for these two teams. While Tampa Bay's offense should struggle against a highly underrated New England defense, the Tampa Bay defense is a match-up nightmare for a struggling New England team. League's worst receiving corp, meet League's best secondary.
Oakland +15 @ Denver
Though Denver has been playing exceptionally well, their competition has been slightly sub-par, resulting in lopsided scores and public misconceptions. Denver is unquestionably the best team in the AFC at this point in time, but 15 points is a lot to spot a team with a playmaker at QB.