2013 Week 1 Review & Week 2 Picks
Week 1 Review (Week 0-4-1, Season 0-4-1)
While the first week is always the most difficult of the season, an 0-4-1 record is a difficult pill to swallow. Week 1 is difficult not only because of the opacity surrounding the bad and mediocre teams, but also because the good teams are prone to rusty and sloppy play. The Bears, Jets, and Chargers were definitely better than expected, while the Ravens, Bucs, Redskins, and Texans were victims of poor execution and mental lapses. We still like the Bengals, Bears, and Ravens, but are slightly skeptical of the Skins and Bucs.
Week 2 Picks
New York +12 @ New England
Long term, we still like New England's offense, but without Vereen, Gronkowski, or Amendola, New York should limit New England's O to a low 20s point total. The only concerns here are that New York is careless with the ball, or can't break 10 points itself.
St. Louis +7 @ Atlanta
Simply put, we believe that Atlanta is overvalued (read more here), and that St. Louis is underrated. Furthermore, Atlanta will be without Rody White, which should really hurt against a stout St. Louis defense. While we still see a narrow Atlanta victory as the most likely outcome, we like St. Louis' chances to pull an upset.
Miami +3 @ Indy
Miami's defense looked dominant against a Cleveland team that received a lot of pre-season hype. The team's free agent additions look to be gelling nicely (well, all but one) and Cameron Wake seems poised for a monstrous season. We like Miami to beat Indy outright in game made close only by the outstanding play of Andrew Luck.
Tampa Bay +3.5 vs New Orleans
Tampa Bay certainly disappointed against New York, but we believe that their poor play was the product of a rusty team rather than a bad team. Furthermore, we think Tampa Bay's aggressive, vertical passing offense has a great matchup against a fundamentally weak New Orleans defense.
Jacksonville +6 @ Oakland
Yes, Jacksonville was beyond atrocious versus Kansas City, and yes, Oakland surprised a lot of people, but should Oakland really be a 6 point favorite against any team in the NFL? Between any two teams that may combine for less than 10 wins, we will always take the points.