2013 Week 16 Review & Week 17 Picks
Week 16 Review (Week 4-1-0, Season 47-31-2)
With our third 4-1 week in a row, we are now picking at a 60% rate for the season. At this point in the season, the value of commentary is somewhat muted by the fact that most teams have been "figured out." However, there are still two teams that are, in our opinion, being undervalued--St. Louis & Arizona. If there is a common thread between these two teams it would the combination of aggressive defense and below average QB play. It seems in these days of QB driven offenses, teams capable of winning despite the play of their QBs will be systematically undervalued.
This will be our final set of weekly picks for the year, but expect post-season thoughts and a 2013 season recap in the coming weeks!
Week 17 Picks
Chicago +3 (115) vs Green Bay
Though we have not been big supporters of Chicago over the course of the season, we do think this is a good spot for them. Green Bay will have both Rodgers and Cobb back for this game, but there should be some chemistry and rust issues that will make things easier for a Chicago defense that needs all the help it can get. Where Green Bay gains on offense with the return of players from injury they lose on defense as Clay Mathews will be out for this game and the foreseeable future. We believe that Chicago will be able to score at will on their way to a close home victory and a play-off berth.
Jacksonville +11 @ Indianapolis
Another team we have not liked all year, Jacksonville, has really stepped things up in recent weeks. Though this team is far from good, 11 points is a significant margin. We believe that Jacksonville, like most teams, will be able to shut down Indianapolis' running game and force Andrew Luck into some poor throws as they lose a close on on the road.
Carolina -6 @ Atlanta
Atlanta did play decently in a tough environment against San Francisco last week, but we expect them to revert back to the mean this Sunday against Carolina. Carolina will be looking to clinch a 2nd overall seed in the NFC playoffs and will not hold anything back. We expect Carolina to win convincingly.
St. Louis +11.5 @ Seattle
Unlike last week's big underdog in Seattle, we do not think St. Louis can win this game outright as Seattle has too much at stake to lose back-to-back home games. That being said, we do think St. Louis will continue to generate serious pass rush and keep Russell Wilson uncomfortable all game. We like St. Louis to lose narrowly
Arizona +1 vs San Francisco
As impressive as San Francisco has been statistically this season, it is difficult to give them a passing grade on the "eye-ball" test. This is a team that never looks truly dominant, and thus we can't rationalize a scenario in which they should be favored on the road against a team of Arizona's caliber. This game is likely to come down to the final possession, and in games that close, the home team tends to be the beneficiary.