2013 Week 15 Review & Week 16 Picks
Week 15 Review (Week 4-1-0, Season 43-30-2)
Our picks continued to perform well in Week 15 as we finished 4-1 for the second week in a row. We were correct on 4 out of 5 games but were still surprised by the performances of San Diego and St. Louis who both won out right. It should come as no surprise that the teams that are performing the best late in the season are the ones that are either young (like St. Louis) or the ones that have new coaches (like Chicago, Arizona, and San Diego) as these teams have seen the most improvement over the course of the season due to accelerated player development. Though we may not necessarily see value in every game these teams play moving forward, we will certainly favor them as the season comes to a close.
Week 16 Picks
Dallas -3 (95) @ Washington
Analysts all week have harped on how Washington's top ranked running game will be a mismatch against Dallas' bottom ranked defense. More often than not, we would agree, however the problem with Washington's running game is that Washington never gets to utilize it. Too often Washington falls behind early and is forced to pass. Though Washington could run at will in this game, we do not believe that they will get the opportunity to do so as a desperate Dallas team jumps out to an early lead, which they will be able to hang on to for a close W.
Arizona +10.5 @ Seattle
Though we say it week after week, it still seems that Arizona is the most undervalued team in the NFL. As good as Seattle is at home, a double digit win against a divisional rival of Arizona's caliber is a tall order. Furthermore, Seattle actually has incentive to lose this game as it would put San Francisco in danger of missing the play-offs. Despite being 10.5 point underdogs, we think Arizona will win outright.
Carolina -3 (120) vs New Orleans
Over the last few weeks, New Orleans has been predictably great at home and predictably bad on the road. Though they did beat Carolina handedly just a few weeks ago, that game was at home. We expect New Orleans to play poorly offensively and lose a close game on the road.
St. Louis -4 vs Tampa Bay
St. Louis is another team that we believe has flown under the radar this season. After getting off to a rough start many people (ourselves included) wrote them off. However, St. Louis started the season as the youngest team in the NFL and has taken huge developmental strides over the course of the year. St. Louis today is not the same team that took the field in week one. This team is defined by a down right terrifying front seven and a power run game that has the potential to dictate flow. Though Tampa Bay has a similar make up, which should make this game somewhat close, we believe that St. Louis is too good to win by less than a touchdown at home against Tampa Bay.
New England +2 @ Baltimore
Just like last week, this is a game that New England typically loses. Even with healthy teams, Tom Brady has struggled against Baltimore, so it is difficult to rationalize any reason for why the Patriots should win this game. However, at the same time, this is by far the most resilient Patriots team in recent memory, and this is a must win game for them. It will be ugly, and it will come down to the final play, but we believe Tom Brady will find a way to win.