2013 Week 6 Review & Week 7 Picks
Week 6 Review (Week 2-3-0, Season 12-15-2)
Like Week 5, we thought Week 6 was incredibly competitive. Perhaps the best example of this was just how tightly Jacksonville was able to play Denver. If you are sloppy, which Denver certainly was in the first half, even the worst team in the NFL will make you pay. We don’t think Denver’s run is completely over, but their poor defense will cost them a game or two this year. The biggest surprise of Week 6 was definitely Houston’s performance against St. Louis. Though they won many key areas of the game, they failed in the one area where a good team can’t—turnovers. Houston will continue to lose until they can protect the football. Looking at the rest of the league, we think the general lack of appreciation for the NFL’s parity will ultiamtely open up the door for bigger point spreads and more upsets (and with that, we’ll start Week 7 off with a road favorite below).
Week 7 Picks
Seattle -5.5 (EV) @ Arizona
Typically, this is not a game that we would necessarily like—An underrated home underdog that has a penchant for playing up to its competition in a primetime game against a divisional opponent that has historically struggled on the road. However, we also believe that after some uninspiring away games and an ugly home win, sentiment has fallen way too far on a once highly supported Seattle team. At the end of the day, this is still a really difficult matchup for Palmer (who can’t stop turning the ball over) and is a great opportunity for Seattle to assert themselves over a division rival. We like Seattle to dominate in a relatively low scoring affair.
Cleveland +10.5 @ Green Bay
After falling to Detroit last week, many are saying Cleveland’s short string of victories was a fluke. Their season hopes may have gone down with Hoyer, and Weeden may be terrible, but this is still a fantastic defense getting 10 points. Green Bay has historically been porous in pass protection, which will be an issue against Mingo and Kruger. Furthermore, Green Bay lost two receivers last week, meaning the Cleveland should be able to get away with playing man and blitzing heavily. We like Cleveland to be competitive to the final whistle in a close game.
Buffalo +9 (125) @ Miami
Coming off a close game against a very good Cincinatti team, it was surprising to see Buffalo as such a large underdog to a Miami team that has lost 2 in a row. While Miami is a superior team and is coming off of a bye week, 9 points is too many to give to a team that has been competitive to the final drive in every game it has played.
Dallas +3 (120) @ Philadelphia
Despite a good showing from Foles against Tampa Bay, we still think that Philadelphia is largely overrated. They have one of the worst defenses in the NFL and Romo should be able to move the ball without resistance. While Dallas’ defense is not spectacular, it should be able to make a few key stops in this game and give Dallas a good opportunity to win as an underdog.
Indianapolis +6.5 vs Denver
Neither of these teams particularly looked at their best last week. Denver was sloppy while Indianapolis’ much improved defense looked like it had taken a few steps back. It may be possible that these are signs of regression back to the mean as both teams were playing at incredibly high levels. Looking forward to this week, we think both teams will bounce back in what is shaping up to be the game of the year. We know that Denver will score, but we don’t think that they will be able to keep Indianapolis out of the endzone either. We like Indianapolis to cover in a very high scoring game.