2017 Week 3 NFL ATS Picks

Week 2 Results

Week 2-3-0, Season 4-4-2, All Time 228-213-12


Week 3 Picks

Bengals +9 @ Packers

Despite his play over the first two weeks of the 2017 season, it’s hard to believe that Andy Dalton is no longer an above average NFL quarterback. The knowledge and skill he’s accrued over the better part of a decade of NFL play probably hasn’t evaporated. A more likely explanation for why the Bengals haven’t scored a TD yet is perhaps that they’ve played two of the best defenses in the NFL and have been unusually bad in the red zone. To think that the Bengals’ offensive ineptitude will continue into Week 3 ignores context and plays to a narrative about Dalton’s averageness that’s never been true. The Packers will win this game, but I believe the Bengals will be competitive.


Bills +3 (100) vs Broncos

As good as this Broncos’ defense has been against the pass, it has always been far less dominant against the run. In this light, it seems more likely that last week’s complete shutdown of Ezekiel Elliott is an exception, not a new rule. Additionally, this isn’t the best spot for the Broncos. They are coming off of two great home wins and may underestimate an inferior, non-divisional opponent on the road. I like the Bills to win outright at home.


Bears +7 vs Steelers

Between the Browns and Vikings, the Steelers have played an extremely easy schedule so far, and yet, they still haven’t looked great. The receiving corps seems a little less deep, Ben seems a little bit older, and Bell seems a little less effective. Of course, this offense will explode at some point this year, but I think they need a few more weeks to get everything straightened out. Additionally, I think the Bears are being a bit undervalued. They were outplayed by the Bucs last week, but not by as much as the score indicated. Fumbles and red zone turnovers let the game get away early and the Bears never recovered. I don’t think the Bears win this game, but I do like them to cover.


Titans -2.5 vs Seahawks

The Seahawks have the best defense in the NFL and an elite QB. Unfortunately, neither of those factors can mask how horrendous their offensive line has continued to be in 2017. As we saw last year with the Vikings, when an offensive line allows instantaneous pressure, strategy ceases to exist. The Seahawks simply can’t run a cohesive offense at this point in the season, and as a result, are capable of losing any game. While I do think the Titans will struggle to move the ball consistently, they do have a better chance moving it enough to control the field and clock. I like the Titans to win at home.


Browns PK @ Colts

As strange as it is to pick the Browns to win on the road with a rookie QB, it would be even stranger to pick the Colts to win (under any circumstance) with out Luck. The Colts have the worst roster in the NFL, and the organization’s incentives to win decrease with every day Andrew Luck doesn’t practice. Though the Browns have their own issues, they are an aspirational team that is playing respectably against good teams. Sadly, that’s enough to make me believe that they have an edge over the Colts.


Week 3 Unofficial Plays

Cowboys -3 (115), Lions +3, Chargers +3.5 (115)