2016 Week 3 NFL ATS Picks
Week 2 Results
Week 1-4, Season 1-8-1, All Time 194-170-4
Though 'technically' better than Week 1, Week 2 was another rough one for my picks. Despite the 1-4 record, the picks themselves were neither bad nor good. Only one of the games was truly un-winable, with all the others being a late play away from breaking one way or another. Week 3 started with a nice win on Thursday Night, and I am hoping to see more of the same on Sunday.
Week 3 Picks
Pittsburgh -3.5 (105) @ Philadelphia
Philadelphia is currently the #1 team in Football Outsiders' VOA rankings. That'll happen when you play the Browns and Bears and strength of schedule isn't yet being accounted for. Philadelphia was expected to be bad at the beginning of the year, and Wentz was expected to be to raw to start. Beating up on bad teams changes nothing in my mind, making elite Pittsburgh quite favorable in this spot.
Detroit +7.5 @ Green Bay
Last week I picked Jacksonville to win on the road after holding Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay to just 199 yards passing in Week 1. Jacksonville then allowed 4 passing TDs to Philips Rivers. This reframed my stance on Green Bay's offense. Rodgers has lost a lot of accuracy, and his receivers are still struggling to gain separation. A road win may be too much to ask of this Detroit team, but they certainly have a chance as 7.5 point underdogs.
Tampa Bay -5.5 vs Los Angeles
What an impossibly tough spot for LA. Not only are they coming off of a huge home upset win, but also they are playing in their first ever 10 AM PST game against a team that was just humiliated. LA needs to play lights out defense to win, and it is difficult to see them having enough energy and tenacity to do so this week.
New Orleans -2.5 (115) vs Atlanta
As with my plays on New England and Tampa Bay, this game is all about spot. New Orleans is desperate to win, is playing a Monday night game at home, and is honoring the tenth anniversary of Hurricane Katrina. This is perhaps the most meaningful game of the year for New Orleans. Conversely, Atlanta picked up a road win last week and likely doesn't feel any extra motivation to win this game. On paper these teams are equal, but on Monday, I think New Orleans will elevate to a higher level.