2015 Week 1 ATS Picks
We are excited to start another season of picks--especially after only going 40-45 ATS last season. Keeping it short and sweet, here are our ATS picks for Week 1 of the 2015 NFL season:
Week 1 Picks
Jets -3.5 vs Browns
We are much more positive on the Jets this season than most. Despite having a below average secondary and a coaching controversy, the Jets still finished with an above average defense by DVOA largely to the credit of their great front seven. This off-season, the Jets completely reworked the secondary and added one of the league's best defensive minds in Todd Bowles, who continuously got his defense to outperform their talent level. Offensively, we expect the Jets to actually play well as much of their ineptitude can be attributed to a bad offensive coach who is no longer there (Rex Ryan). We will be picking the Jets a lot this season, and will start with them over the Browns.
Bucs -2.5 (115) vs Titans
This game is being billed as a showdown between two potential franchise QBs who will inevitably be compared to one another because of where they went in the draft. We think Mariotta is better than Winston, but right now, the Bucs are just better than the Titans. They have a significant talent advantage on defense, and have more play makers on offense. Surely some big rookie mistakes could swing the outcome of this game, but we think the Bucs should be able to win at home and cover a small point spread.
Rams +4 vs Seahawks
The Rams are a team that has slowly developed over the last few years. The front office has managed to assemble quite possibly the scariest defensive line in recent memory and paired it with a young, but capable, secondary. We are concerned about the Rams' offense, and generally think Seattle will be fantastic again this year, but the turnover of the Seattle offensive line makes this a timely matchup for the Rams. We like the Rams to win outright as a home underdog.
Cardinals -2 vs New Orleans
We do believe that both of these teams will regress to the mean this year, especially the Cardinals who we believe are being significantly overvalued both offensively and defensively. At the same time, the Cardinals continue to boast an excellent home field advantage, which is not being reflected in this line. We like the Cardinals to cover at home.
Bengals -3.5 @ Raiders
Simply put, we are higher on the Bengals and lower on the Raiders than the general consensus. We expect the Bengals defense to rebound significantly from an off year, and we expect the offense to continue to perform at an above average level. While we do think the Raiders will experience yearly improvement, we are not sold in any way on Derek Carr. Some flukish redzone numbers really made a bad rookie season look passable, but we expect him to hold the team down in 2015. We like the Bengals to win handedly.