2015 Super Bowl ATS Pick and Preview

Conference Round Review (Week 2-0, Season 44-53, All Time 147-130-2)

The conference round was successful for us as our picks went 2-0. However, the Conference Championship Round didn't necessarily reveal anything new about either the Seahawks or the Patriots. We believe that the two best teams in the NFL made the Superbowl, and it should be a great game.


Super Bowl ATS pick

New England -1 vs Seattle Seahawks

Exactly one year ago, we gave a remarkably sage preview and prediction for this Seattle team's Super Bowl victory over the Denver Broncos. Our theory for the game revolved around the idea that Seattle would impossible for Manning to scheme against because they were an execution defense and they simply had too much talent to be beat on an execution basis. The Broncos' reliance on at-the-line audibling was their undoing because Manning couldn't take advantage of a defense that played the same way every single play. With regard to in-game reads, Brady is second only to Manning and it would follow that he will have similar difficulty trying to take advantage of Seattle's execution defense. However, Brady has a huge advantage over other QBs that is very rarely talked about.

Brady and Belichick together are arguably the best pre-game scheming duo in the history of the NFL. If Manning falls apart when he can't scheme in-game, Brady tends to fall apart when his pre-game schemes don't work in-game and he and Belichick can't discern the requisite adjustments to turn the game around. Very rarely does a New England offense play the game it want's to play in a losing effort. Though kryptonite against Manning, Seattle's one dimensional defense will be its undoing against Brady.

With ample time to prepare, we believe that Brady and Belichick will be able to incorporate some novel wrinkles into their offense and will be able to game plan away from Seattle's defensive strengths, allowing them to dictate terms on offense. We do not think New England will have as difficult a time scoring against Seattle as many other teams have had. The Seattle Offense will not have similar success against New England's Defense.

New England's defense should be quite successful against Russel Wilson and the Seattle Offense. While the Seattle offense is relatively stacked on the OL, and at the QB and RB positions, they are very weak at WR. The New England secondary is elite and can over match any and all of Seattle's receivers in one-on-one man scenarios. We expect New England to shut down Seattle's passing attack, enabling them to dedicate additional resources to stopping Marshawn Lynch and Russel Wilson in the running game.

Overall, we believe that New England has the potential to be a serious mismatch problem for Seattle. In a game between two teams that are this good, and this close in skill levels, that mismatch will be the key difference maker. New England wins 27 - 17.